The Truth Behind the 82% Approval Rating — How JNN Polls Reflect Japan’s “Fixed-Line Opinion”

According to the JNN opinion poll, the approval rating for the Takaichi Cabinet stands at 82%, reportedly the second highest since 2001.
However, a closer look at the methodology shows that this figure does not necessarily reflect the sentiment of the broader Japanese public.

📊 Survey Overview

• Date: November 1–2

• Method: Random Digit Dialing (RDD) — automated random generation of phone numbers for both landline and mobile phones

• Target Sample: 2,607 adults nationwide (875 landline / 1,732 mobile)

• Valid Responses: 1,013 people (503 landline / 510 mobile)

• Response Rate: 38.9%

📞 Sample Bias Toward Landline Respondents

The JNN survey used the Random Digit Dialing (RDD) method, which calls both landline and mobile numbers.
However, in today’s communication environment—where many households no longer maintain landlines—calls to fixed phones are easier to reach.

In this survey, calls were placed to 875 landline and 1,732 mobile numbers.
Among those, valid responses were obtained from 503 landline users and 510 mobile users, showing nearly equal response counts.

Because mobile users are less likely to answer unknown calls (due to call screening or refusal),
the sample tends to be biased toward those more accustomed to telephone surveys — typically older, TV-watching demographics.

📉 A Low Response Rate of 38.9%

More than 60% of contacted individuals either hung up or declined to answer.
Those who remained tend to be people who are more cooperative, older, and politically engaged—
groups that are not necessarily representative of the general population.

🔢 Structural Bias in the RDD Method

Although RDD is described as “random,”
in practice, the method favors households where someone is available to answer the phone,
and excludes the growing number of individuals who primarily use internet-based communication.
As a result, the survey captures a narrow slice of Japan’s demographic reality—
one dominated by traditional TV viewers and politically established groups.

🌐 “Online Surveys Are Biased”? — A Misleading Excuse

JNN justifies its reliance on phone-based RDD by claiming that “internet surveys tend to attract people already interested in politics.”
Yet the same logic applies here: those who pick up random phone calls and stay through a survey are themselves a self-selected,
non-random segment—often older and more conservative.

🧩The Real Meaning Behind the “82%” Figure

This approval rate represents those who are reachable by telephone and willing to answer political questions—
a specific, self-selecting population.
While the raw numbers appear balanced between landline and mobile respondents,
RDD still underrepresents younger generations and those who communicate primarily through digital means.

Therefore, the 82% figure should not be read as the unified voice of the Japanese public,
but rather as the sentiment of a smaller, more accessible subset of society.

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🧭 Final Note

Statistical figures can sound definitive,
especially when framed as “the people were asked.”
But the key question remains: who were actually asked?
Until Japan’s major broadcasters address the structural biases inherent in traditional phone polling,
such “approval ratings” will continue to reflect only a fraction of the nation’s reality.

Source: TBS NEWS DIG — JNN Poll

*Updated on Nov 4, 2025: Numerical figures corrected based on the official JNN report. The analysis remains unchanged.*